As a new way of railway tourism, the forecasting of passenger flow in advance is not only an important step in the operation and management process of tourist-dedicated trains, but also very important for the management department of railway tourist-dedicated trains to understand the level of passenger flow, carry out economic budget and formulate dedicated train transportation plans. In this paper, in view of the lack of theoretical methods for tourism passenger flow forecasting, based on the reference of other railway and rail transit passenger flow forecasting, in order to meet the needs of fast and accurate forecasting, a grey-Markov tourist-dedicated train forecasting model is proposed to solve the problem of short-term passenger flow forecasting of tourist-dedicated trains. The passenger flow of Lanzhou Railway Station of Lanzhou Railway Group Company during the peak period of winter and summer holidays is forecasted, and the validity of the grey-Markov forecasting model is verified by comparing with the grey GM (1,1) forecasting model. The comparison results show that the passenger flow of the tourist-dedicated train obtained by the grey-Markov forecasting model is closer to the actual value, which indicates that the grey-Markov forecasting model has certain feasibility and effectiveness in solving the short-term passenger flow forecasting problem of the tourist-dedicated train. This theoretical method can improve the efficiency of tourist-dedicated train operation decision-making and provide a new reference for the theoretical system of tourism special train passenger flow forecasting.
Research on the Forecasting of Tourist-Dedicated Train Passenger Flow Based on Grey-Markov Forecasting Model
2025-03-28
806676 byte
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
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