Since the transportation sector plays an important role in the initiation and propagation of business cycles, in previous chapters we developed output [transportation services output (TSI)] and other indicators to construct an index of coincident indicators for the U.S. transportation sector to identify its current state. We defined the reference cycle, including both business and growth cycles for this sector beginning in 1979 using both the conventional National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) method and modern time series models. A one-to-one correspondence between cycles in the transportation sector and those in the aggregate economy was found; however, both business and growth cycles of transportation often start earlier and end later than those of the overall economy. Although the knowledge and inference based on coincident indicators can serve as an important reference for planning and other decision-making processes, these indicators are also subject to substantial lag due to data collection, processing and revision, underscoring the need to develop a system of leading indicators for the industry. Thus, in this chapter, we construct an index of leading indicators for the transportation sector as a forecasting tool using rigorous statistical procedures.


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    Title :

    Chapter 3 Leading Indicators for the U.S. Transportation Sector


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2010


    Remarks:

    Campusweiter Zugriff (Universität Hannover) - Vervielfältigungen (z.B. Kopien, Downloads) sind nur von einzelnen Kapiteln oder Seiten und nur zum eigenen wissenschaftlichen Gebrauch erlaubt. Keine Weitergabe an Dritte. Kein systematisches Downloaden durch Robots.




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    Classification :

    RVK:    QR 800
    BKL:    55.80 Verkehrswesen, Transportwesen: Allgemeines
    DDC:    388.015195 / 388.049



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