This paper presents a technical approach to improve the confidence in the systems analysis process by integrating Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) techniques within a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering (MBSA&E) framework. The MBSA&E architecture uses system models and multidisciplinary analytical solutions as central artifacts for system design and analysis. The integration of UQ enables engineers to assess and mitigate uncertainties associated with a system model, design parameters, and constraint inputs, leading to more complete design studies and better informed decision-making processes. The proposed approach leverages the strengths of MBSA&E and extends it with a UQ methodology to quantify uncertainties in the input parameters and to trace the uncertainties as they propagate throughout the system model. To demonstrate the effectiveness of an integrated MBSA&E-UQ approach, a case study involving a simplified analysis of a Transonic Truss-Braced Wing concept vehicle is performed. This integration enables a more comprehensive evaluation of system performance and behavior under uncertainty and a more robust approach for system design and analysis. Lastly, the paper addresses the challenges and considerations associated with integrating UQ into an MBSA&E framework.
Integration of Uncertainty Quantification in a Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering Framework
Journal of Aircraft ; 1-7
2025-06-11
Conference paper , Article (Journal)
Electronic Resource
English
Model-Based Systems Analysis , Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate , Aerospace Systems Design , Uncertainty Quantification , Systems Analysis , Transonic Truss-Braced Wing (TTBW) , Model-Based Systems Engineering , Design Engineering , Multidisciplinary Design Analysis and Optimization , Aircraft Design Process
Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification for Systems Engineering with DaVinci
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2012
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