Short-term passenger flow prediction plays an important role in the guidance, control, and management of intelligent transportation systems. Aiming at the problems of unclear influencing factors and low prediction accuracy of the current short-term prediction methods of passenger flow, this paper proposes a passenger flow prediction method based on gradient boosting. Based on the spatio-temporal correlation passenger flow, the features that may affect passenger flow are extracted from the inbound AFC (automatic fare collection system) data of urban rail transit. The data set is aggregated by the passenger flow every 10 min. Finally, the LightGBM (light gradient boosting machine) model is established to realize efficient and accurate short-term passenger flow prediction. Experimental verification based on the AFC inbound data set of Nanjing rail transit shows that the prediction accuracy of the LightGBM model is higher than that of the Fbprophet model.


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    Title :

    Short-Term Inbound Passenger Flow Forecast of Urban Rail Transit Based on LightGBM


    Contributors:
    Ren, Gang (author) / Zhang, Mengdie (author) / Qian, Die (author) / Song, Jianhua (author)

    Conference:

    22nd COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals ; 2022 ; Changsha, Hunan Province, China


    Published in:

    CICTP 2022 ; 1090-1099


    Publication date :

    2022-09-08




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



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