Although the Chinese railway high value-added freight demand has grown rapidly in recent years, the high value-added freight market share is low. A prediction model based on system dynamics is built to predict the trends of the Chinese railway high value-added freight market. Simulation results show that railway high value-added freight demand and supply capacity will continue to increase from 2013 to 2020. However, the supply capacity growth rate is far below the demand growth rate, and the railway high value-added freight backlog rate shows an increasing trend. Sensitivity analysis shows that changes of high value-added freight supply coefficient, social investment coefficient, effect coefficient of railway investments, and railway high value-added freight attraction coefficient have a great impact on railway high value-added freight supply capacity. Finally, some strategies are proposed to improve the supply capacity and market share of railway high value-added freight based on these four elements.
Research on Railway High Value-Added Freight Market in China Based on System Dynamics
14th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals ; 2014 ; Changsha, China
CICTP 2014 ; 3513-3525
2014-06-24
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
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