Highway passenger travel demand is difficult to predict. In order to forecast travel demand accurately, highway passenger kilometers is used to study population, gross domestic product, highway kilometers, high-speed railway operating kilometers and car ownership. The constructed elasticity model is measured using panel data at the city and provincial levels of China for several years. Results show the growth of high-speed railway operating kilometers will decrease highway passenger kilometers. The high-speed railway operating kilometers elasticity of highway passenger kilometers is -0.074, meaning a 1% growth of high-speed railway operating kilometers will decrease 0.074% highway passenger kilometers. Results show that highway passenger travel demand forecasting under the development of high-speed railway should consider trend traffic volume (influence of population and GDP), induced traffic volume (influence of highway kilometers), and transfer traffic volume (influence of high-speed railway operating kilometers). These provide valuable suggestions for the construction of a sustainable passenger transportation system.
Highway Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting under the Development of High-Speed Railway
21st COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals ; 2021 ; Xi’an, China
CICTP 2021 ; 2213-2220
2021-12-14
Conference paper
Electronic Resource
English
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