Highway passenger travel demand is difficult to predict. In order to forecast travel demand accurately, highway passenger kilometers is used to study population, gross domestic product, highway kilometers, high-speed railway operating kilometers and car ownership. The constructed elasticity model is measured using panel data at the city and provincial levels of China for several years. Results show the growth of high-speed railway operating kilometers will decrease highway passenger kilometers. The high-speed railway operating kilometers elasticity of highway passenger kilometers is -0.074, meaning a 1% growth of high-speed railway operating kilometers will decrease 0.074% highway passenger kilometers. Results show that highway passenger travel demand forecasting under the development of high-speed railway should consider trend traffic volume (influence of population and GDP), induced traffic volume (influence of highway kilometers), and transfer traffic volume (influence of high-speed railway operating kilometers). These provide valuable suggestions for the construction of a sustainable passenger transportation system.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Highway Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting under the Development of High-Speed Railway


    Contributors:
    He, Nan (author) / Wu, Jiawei (author) / Du, Xiao (author)

    Conference:

    21st COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals ; 2021 ; Xi’an, China


    Published in:

    CICTP 2021 ; 2213-2220


    Publication date :

    2021-12-14




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English





    Passenger travel demand forecasting

    National Research Council, Transportation Research Board, USA | TIBKAT | 1976



    Railway passenger demand forecasting

    Smith, Tim / Faber, Oscar | IuD Bahn | 1998