Traditional bus arrival time prediction such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) is based on large-scale data mining. Due to the real-time and uncertainties characteristic of traffic conditions, the method based on historical data mining cannot predict bus arrival time accurately. This paper presents a real-time prediction method based on probe bus fleet models. The probe bus fleet is established by all the buses running on the bus line. The bus line will be separated into different meta-segments because of the overlap of different bus lines and etc. The bus fleet should be established and disassembled dynamically based on the meta-segment, and the real-time data collected from probe buses could be used for next bus arrival time prediction by using the Kalman filtering technique. Experimental results show that this model provides a higher level of veracity and reliability of travel time forecasting in the case of frequently changing traffic conditions, and support real-time adjustment to obtain more accurate bus arrival time.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Bus Arrival Time Prediction Based on Probe Bus Fleet


    Contributors:
    Gao, He (author) / Li, JingLin (author) / Yang, Fangchun (author)

    Conference:

    Second International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety ; 2013 ; Wuhan, China


    Published in:

    ICTIS 2013 ; 773-779


    Publication date :

    2013-06-11




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English





    ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION DEVICE, ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION SYSTEM, AND PROGRAM

    OKUDE MARIKO / NAGAI TOORU | European Patent Office | 2016

    Free access

    ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION DEVICE AND ARRIVAL TIME PREDICTION DEVICE SYSTEM

    ARAKI KATSUNORI | European Patent Office | 2017

    Free access

    Feasible Time Range Analysis of Wide Fleet for Continuous Descent Arrival

    Park, S.G. / Clarke, J.-P. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2013


    Pattern identification based bus arrival time prediction

    Kumar, Selvaraj Vasantha | Online Contents | 2014