Freeways are facilities where it’s likely for severe traffic accidents to happen and thus have great safety concerns. This study predicts the safety of basic freeway segments using traffic conflict techniques. From the highD data set, two different conflict indicators, time to collision (TTC) and post encroachment time (PET), were extracted to measure the traffic conflicts, considering different thresholds. Road- and vehicle-factors which could influence the occurrence of traffic conflicts were considered independent variables. Both Poisson distribution models and Negative Binomial models were developed, and their performances were evaluated according to the goodness of fit and prediction accuracy. The result shows that the Negative Binomial distribution models are better because the data is overdispersed. The prediction accuracy of the models using PET is generally higher than that of the models using TTC. Variables such as lane-changing frequency and standard deviation of space-mean-speed have significant impact on the traffic conflicts.


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    Title :

    Traffic Conflict Prediction for Basic Freeway Segments Considering Different Indicators


    Contributors:
    Zheng, Lai (author) / Jiao, Hansheng (author) / Wei, Wei (author)

    Conference:

    24th COTA International Conference of Transportation Professionals ; 2024 ; Shenzhen, China


    Published in:

    CICTP 2024 ; 2602-2612


    Publication date :

    2024-12-11




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



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