The invention discloses a short-term traffic flow prediction method based on time series decomposition. A traffic flow sequence is decomposed into a trend component, a period component and a residualcomponent through a time sequence decomposition method, then an appropriate model is established to independently train and predict the three components, and finally prediction results are added to serve as a final prediction result, and the method comprises the following six steps: (1) collecting traffic flow data of a road section to be predicted; (2) decomposing the traffic flow sequence into atrend component, a period component and a residual component; (3) establishing an appropriate prediction model for the trend component and the residual component; (4) dynamically decomposing newly observed traffic flow data; (5) independently predicting the three dynamically decomposed components; and (6) adding the three prediction results to obtain a final prediction result. The method can effectively improve the accuracy of the short-term traffic flow prediction result.
本发明公开了一种基于时间序列分解的短时交通流预测方法,它通过时间序列分解方法将交通流序列分解为趋势、周期和残差3个成分,再建立合适的模型对这3个成分单独训练并预测,最后将预测结果相加,作为最终的预测结果,它包括以下6个步骤:(1)采集所要预测道路断面的交通流数据;(2)将交通流序列分解为趋势、周期和残差3个成分;(3)对趋势成分和残差成分建立合适的预测模型,(4)将新观测的交通流数据动态分解;(5)对动态分解的3个成分单独预测;(6)将3个预测结果相加,作为最终的预测结果。该方法能够有效提高短时交通流预测结果的精确度。
Short-term traffic flow prediction method based on time series decomposition
一种基于时间序列分解的短时交通流预测方法
2020-05-15
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES |
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