The invention discloses a channel traffic flow prediction method based on AIS data, and the method comprises the steps: determining four traffic flow observation sections after determining a research region, and then determining the traffic flow data of the four traffic flow observation sections based on the original AIS data of the four traffic flow observation sections; traffic flow data of four traffic flow observation sections are adopted to construct a training sample, a BP neural network model in matlab software is trained, then the trained BP neural network model is adopted to carry out traffic flow prediction, the four traffic flow observation sections are considered as a whole, and the traffic flow prediction accuracy is improved. The change rule and various influence factors of the traffic flow of four adjacent traffic flow observation sections which are regarded as a whole are considered, the traffic flow data of the four traffic flow observation sections are comprehensively used for quantitative analysis, and then a BP neural network model is selected for prediction; the method has the advantage of high traffic flow prediction precision.

    本发明公开了一种基于AIS数据的航道交通流量预测方法,通过确定研究区域后确定4个交通流观测断面后,然后基于4个交通流观测断面的原始AIS数据确定4个交通流观测断面的交通流量数据,采用4个交通流观测断面的交通流量数据构建训练样本,对matlab软件中BP神经网络模型进行训练,继而采用训练后的BP神经网络模型进行交通流量预测,将4个交通流观测断面看成一个整体考虑,考虑看作一个整体的相邻4个交通流观测断面地交通流量的变化规律和各种影响因素,综合使用4个交通流观测断面的交通流量数据进行定量分析后再选取BP神经网络模型进行预测;优点是交通流量预测精度较高。


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    Title :

    AIS data-based channel traffic flow prediction method


    Additional title:

    一种基于AIS数据的航道交通流量预测方法


    Contributors:
    ZHONG LIANGXIA (author) / ZHENG PENGJUN (author) / MA WENQING (author) / WEN YIQING (author) / WU JIAXIN (author) / ZHU YINI (author)

    Publication date :

    2022-04-19


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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