An urban rail transit passenger flow prediction method under emergencies comprises the following steps that S1, data preparation and preprocessing are carried out, and urban rail transit physical network information, AFC card swiping data and train operation data are obtained; s2, constructing a specific OD matrix for each train according to the AFC card swiping data and the train departure time table; s3, predicting the OD matrix of each train under the normal condition of the day according to a plurality of historical train OD matrixes in the same period; s4, determining the input of the emergency according to the report content of the station staff; in conclusion, the unique OD matrix belonging to each train is constructed, the OD matrix of the train under the normal condition is predicted by using the historical data in the same period, and the detention passenger flow of each station and the detention passenger flow of each train are more intuitively expressed; the prediction method provided by the invention can guide an operation company to make a more timely and accurate decision.

    一种突发事件下城市轨道交通客流预测方法,包括以下步骤:S1:数据准备与预处理,获取城市轨道交通物理网络信息、AFC刷卡数据和列车运行数据;S2:根据AFC刷卡数据和列车发车时刻表为每列车构建其特有的OD矩阵;S3:根据若干历史同期的列车OD矩阵,预测当日正常情况下每列车的OD矩阵;S4:由车站工作人员的汇报内容确定突发事件的输入;综上所述,本发明提出构建属于每列车的独特的OD矩阵,并利用历史同期数据对正常情况下列车的OD矩阵进行预测,更直观地表述了各车站的滞留客流和各列车的滞留客流;本发明预测方法可以指导运营公司做出更为及时、准确的决策。


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    Title :

    Urban rail transit passenger flow prediction method under emergency


    Additional title:

    一种突发事件下城市轨道交通客流预测方法


    Contributors:
    ZHANG WENQIANG (author) / LIU YURAN (author) / ZHANG HANXIAO (author) / LIU XU (author) / DOU FEI (author) / LIU GUANGHUA (author) / LI MEIHUI (author) / YIN HAODONG (author) / YANG XIN (author)

    Publication date :

    2023-05-02


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / B61L Leiten des Eisenbahnverkehrs , GUIDING RAILWAY TRAFFIC / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung



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