The invention discloses a road passenger car traffic volume prediction method and system based on road section data, and the method comprises the steps: firstly determining a reference city and a reference time period, and obtaining the motor vehicle inventory of the city in the reference time period; and determining a reference road in the city, obtaining the passenger car traffic volume of each section of the road in a specified time period, calculating a traffic volume elastic coefficient, and calculating the annual growth rate of the passenger car traffic volume of the target road in the prediction time period according to the motor vehicle ownership of the target road in the prediction time period, thereby obtaining the future passenger car traffic volume of the target road. The direct data based on the method is the road traffic volume instead of the urban traffic volume in the prior art, the prediction is more accurate, meanwhile, the method can be well applied to various vehicle types in a generalization mode and more flexibly adapt to the actual traffic problem, and a more convenient prediction mode is provided for the road network traffic planning data.
本发明公开了一种基于公路断面数据的公路客车交通量预测方法及系统,首先确认参考城市及其参考时间段,获得该城市在参考时间段内的机动车保有量;再确定该城市中的参考公路,获得该公路在指定时间段内各断面客车交通量,计算出交通量弹性系数后,根据目标公路在预测时间段内的机动车保有量,计算预测时间段内目标公路客车交通量年增长率,从而得到目标公路未来客车交通量。本发明方法基于的直接数据是公路交通量,而非现有技术中的城市运输量,预测更加准确,同时本方法可以较好泛化地用于各种车型,更加灵活地适应交通实际问题,为公路网交通规划的数据提供了更便捷的预测方式。
Road passenger car traffic volume prediction method and system based on road section data
一种基于公路断面数据的公路客车交通量预测方法及系统
2024-07-23
Patent
Electronic Resource
Chinese
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