The invention relates to a polar region ship navigation risk management and control method and system, and the method comprises the following steps: obtaining polar region natural environment original data, predicting missing data points through a random forest, and obtaining a high-density environment risk data sample in a space-time dimension; a Bayesian network model of a polar region ship navigation process is constructed based on accident risk factors, model parameters are calculated based on environment observation data, and navigation safety assessment in a multi-risk mode is realized by constructing a risk assessment model; and for the most important risk type after navigation safety assessment, comprehensive risk management and control of polar region ship navigation are realized in combination with ship seaworthiness, ship navigation window period, air route and risk management and control measures. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantages that environment and climate real-time characteristics are fully considered, risk assessment and comprehensive risk management and control are realized through subjective and objective combination, and the like.

    本发明涉及一种极地船舶通航风险管控方法和系统,方法包括如下步骤:获取极地自然环境原始数据,通过随机森林对缺失数据点进行预测,得到时空维度下的高密度环境风险数据样本;基于事故风险因素构建极地船舶航行过程的贝叶斯网络模型,基于环境观测数据计算模型参数,通过构建风险评估模型实现多风险模式下的通航安全评估;针对通航安全评估后最主要的风险类型,结合船舶适航性、船舶通航窗口期、航路航线和风险管控措施,实现极地船舶通航的综合风险管控。与现有技术相比,本发明具有充分考虑环境和气候实时性特征、主客观结合实现风险评估、综合风险管控等优点。


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    Title :

    Polar region ship navigation risk management and control method and system


    Additional title:

    一种极地船舶通航风险管控方法和系统


    Contributors:
    HU SHENPING (author) / HAN BING (author) / ZHANG XINXIN (author) / WU JIANJUN (author) / FANG CUIWEN (author) / WU WEI (author) / XI YONGTAO (author) / XUAN SHAOYONG (author) / WENG JINXIAN (author)

    Publication date :

    2025-01-24


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung / G08B SIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS , Signalisier- oder Rufsysteme



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