This paper presents a short-term forecasting approach on transit route OD (Origin-Destination) matrix using smart card data of buses. Temporal characteristics of stop-level boardings/alightings and route-level number of passengers are analyzed. A three-step methodology that provides short-term forecasts of transit route OD matrices is proposed. The proposed method is applied to bus route 966 in Beijing as a case study. The forecasted results are compared with the observed data. The proposed short-term forecasting approach has a mean absolute percentage error no more than 13.05% or lower and a maximum absolute error no more than 17 suggesting the usefulness of the proposed method to support the deployment of dynamic urban transportation management systems.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Short-term forecasting of transit route OD matrix with smart card data


    Contributors:
    Xumei Chen, (author) / Shuxia Guo, (author) / Lei Yu, (author) / Hellinga, B. (author)


    Publication date :

    2011-10-01


    Size :

    436414 byte





    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    Measuring transit use variability with smart-card data

    Morency, Catherine | Online Contents | 2007


    An experiential learning-based transit route choice model using large-scale smart-card data

    Arriagada, Jacqueline / Guevara, C. Angelo / Munizaga, Marcela et al. | Springer Verlag | 2025


    Interoperable Transit Smart Card Systems

    Yoh, Allison C. / Iseki, Hiroyuki / Taylor, Brian D. et al. | Transportation Research Record | 2006



    A procedure for public transit OD matrix generation using smart card transaction data

    Jafari Kang, Masood / Ataeian, Shervin / Amiripour, S. M. Mahdi | Springer Verlag | 2021