In operating a real-time, traffic-responsive control system, such as a freeway ramp control system, most of the decisions made by the system will depend on its prediction of traffic during upcoming short-term periods. Volume IV deals with the prediction of freeway traffic volumes and occupancies using parametric methods, including the following steps: (1) Four existing parametric methods will be used to forecast volumes and occupancies. These models include the adaptive prediction system, the double exponential smoothing method, the exponential smoothing with adaptive response method, and the Box-Jenkins method. (2) A new model will be developed using Fourier's transformation or cross spectrum to forecast the downstream volumes. The model can analyze the lags between upstream or on-ramp volume time series and downstream volume series. (3) A detailed comparison of both volume and occupancy forecasting results using these different models will be made, and the interpretation of the results and the drawbacks of each model will be discussed. (4) A conclusion will be drawn from the research and recommendations presented.


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    Title :

    Short-Term Forecasts of Freeway Traffic Volumes and Lane Occupancies, Phase 1. Volume 4. Freeway and Ramp Real Time Forecasting


    Contributors:
    N. L. Nihan (author) / J. Zhu (author)

    Publication date :

    1993


    Size :

    114 pages


    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English






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