The incremental worldwide effects on greenhouse gases are estimated for the substitution of natural gas- or methanol-based light-duty vehicles for current gasoline-based vehicles in the United States. The effects are estimated on a per-vehicle mile basis, holding acceleration, passenger capacity, engine technology, and range of the vehicle constant. The relative merits of natural gas- or methanol-based vehicles for commuting and other household vehicle market niches are considered. In terms of net global greenhouse gas emissions, the replacement of crude-oil-derived gasoline by non-gasoline fuels derived from natural gas is superior to the use of gasoline derived from natural gas. The transition paths from oil to natural-gas-based light-duty vehicle fuels is examined, considering the effects of the substitution of currently flared natural gas for crude oil as the raw material for transition transportation fuels. Greenhouse gas emissions arising from the following raw material pathways are compared: oil to gasoline; natural gas to the atmosphere, flared combustion products to the atmosphere, compressed natural gas in vehicles, methanol in vehicles, methyl tert-butyl ether in vehicles, and gasoline in vehicles; and coal to methanol. 33 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.


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