Adjustment factors needed to contemporize World War Il-based hit probabilities of the SHIPCAS casualty projection model were investigated. Subject Matter Experts provided quantitive responses corresponding to the perceived shifts in hit probability associated with each present-day weapon system when compared to the baseline hit rate. The largest projected increases in hit probability were associated with submarine-launched guided missiles and submarine launched torpedos with passive homing systems. Hit probabilities associated with individual weapon system% ranged from a 90% decrease to a 233% increase when compared to WWII ship hit likelihood. Empirical data also indicated that ship hit likelihood decreased with distance from land objective.


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    Title :

    Shipboard Casualty Forecasting: Adjustments to Ship Hit Probabilities


    Contributors:
    C. G. Blood (author) / J. S. Marks (author) / M. S. Odowick (author)

    Publication date :

    1996


    Size :

    34 pages


    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English





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