Adjustment factors needed to contemporize World War Il-based hit probabilities of the SHIPCAS casualty projection model were investigated. Subject Matter Experts provided quantitive responses corresponding to the perceived shifts in hit probability associated with each present-day weapon system when compared to the baseline hit rate. The largest projected increases in hit probability were associated with submarine-launched guided missiles and submarine launched torpedos with passive homing systems. Hit probabilities associated with individual weapon system% ranged from a 90% decrease to a 233% increase when compared to WWII ship hit likelihood. Empirical data also indicated that ship hit likelihood decreased with distance from land objective.
Shipboard Casualty Forecasting: Adjustments to Ship Hit Probabilities
1996
34 pages
Report
No indication
English
Clinical Medicine , Statistical Analysis , Marine Engineering , Forecasting , Shipboard , Casualties , Hit probabilities , Guided missiles , Military history , Ships , Quantitative analysis , Torpedoes , Models , Weapon systems , Passive systems , Littoral zones , Homing , Submarine launched , Weapon delivery , Empirical analysis
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