The purpose of this report is to describe the methodology used in developing the First Coast Guard District (CGD1) Traffic Model and to document the potential National Distress System (NDS) voice and data traffic forecasted for the year 2001. The NDS is a network of approximately 300 remotely-controlled very high frequency (VHF) frequency modulated (FM) radios and antennas used for monitoring the maritime distress frequency (CH 16-156.8MHz) and for providing distress, safety, and United States Coast Guard (USCG) command and control (C(2)) communications coverage. Currently, the USCG is researching alternative communications systems for potential use in the modernization of the NDS. A contributing factor to selecting an alternative system is the amount of traffic capacity needed. As part of this effort, a baseline model of NDS communications in the CGD1 was developed to provide a reference for forecasting potential future NDS traffic volume. The forecasting of the future NDS traffic volume includes the consideration of data communications along with the changes to the voice traffic volume. These models provide the information for input to computer simulations using OPNET. OPNET is a network simulation tool which will provide data to support capacity requirements for different alterative equipment and communications configurations. This report describes the CGD1 Traffic Model. Included in this report is a discussion of the model structure, the forecasting methodology, an analysis of the data, and the forecasted model.


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