Four alternative-futures scenarios (high and moderate growth, changing values, depression, and recovery) were developed, including key assumptions about economic, demographic, and social conditions, and about resource availability. These scenarios are used to provide a context for projecting transportation energy demand, and to provide a framework for other kinds of long-range studies of transportation energy use and related factors. Energy-demand projections, from the present through the year 2025, were made for each major mode of transportation - automobiles and personal trucks, buses, railroads, commercial trucks, aviation, and water transportation. A set of long-range scenarios and baseline projections of transportation energy demand consistent with each scenario was provided. These baselines are intended to serve as starting points for future analyses of various transportation energy-conservation strategies. A common alternative-futures scenario framework for future work is provided. The scenarios developed can be elaborated for closer study of different projections of regional-transportation energy use; they can serve as the bases for inputs to more-elaborate forecasting models; or they can serve as starting points for developing other scenarios of the future. (ERA citation 05:030808)


    Access

    Access via TIB

    Check availability in my library


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Transportation Energy Demand in Alternative Futures


    Publication date :

    1978


    Size :

    87 pages


    Type of media :

    Report


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English




    Panel: Alternative Futures

    Brady, A. / Eyers, C. / Haynes, P. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2006


    Alternative travel futures

    Pangbourne, K. | Online Contents | 2011


    Alternative demand functions for “abstract” transportation modes

    Crow, Robert Thomas / Young, Kan Hua / Cooley, Thomas | Elsevier | 1972