A new approach for assessing development risk associated with technology development projects is presented. The method represents technology evolution in terms of sector-specific discrete development stages. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate development probability distributions based on statistical models of the discrete transitions. Development risk is derived from the resulting probability distributions and specific program requirements. Two sample cases are discussed to illustrate the approach, a single rocket engine development and a three-technology space transportation portfolio.
Technology Development Risk Assessment for Space Transportation Systems
8th Probabalistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference ; 2006 ; New Orleans, LA, United States
2006-05-19
Conference paper
No indication
English
Technology Development Risk Assessment for Space Transportation Systems (PSAM-0211)
British Library Conference Proceedings | 2006
|Technology for space transportation systems
NTRS | 1978
|Technology Engineering: The Concurrent Development of Space Transportation Systems and Technology
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