A new approach for assessing development risk associated with technology development projects is presented. The method represents technology evolution in terms of sector-specific discrete development stages. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate development probability distributions based on statistical models of the discrete transitions. Development risk is derived from the resulting probability distributions and specific program requirements. Two sample cases are discussed to illustrate the approach, a single rocket engine development and a three-technology space transportation portfolio.


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    Title :

    Technology Development Risk Assessment for Space Transportation Systems


    Contributors:

    Conference:

    8th Probabalistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference ; 2006 ; New Orleans, LA, United States


    Publication date :

    2006-05-19


    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English




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