Aircraft Certification by Analysis (CbA) is a broad term that describes the process by which engineering analysis tools are used to supplement flight testing to demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements. For each requirement that is to be met through this process, the analysis tools must be sufficiently accurate to ensure that an equivalent level of safety is obtained as if the aircraft to be certified had been flight tested for the requirement. In recent decades, the ability of analysis tools to accurately predict aircraft performance has improved dramatically, leading to increasing interest and limited early adoption of Certification by Analysis across the aerospace industry. However, rigorously demonstrating the credibility of analysis tools remains a challenge for many types of certification requirements, yet is necessary for widespread adoption of CbA approaches in the future. The field of uncertainty quantification is well-suited to address this problem, but will require substantial advances in order to achieve the ambitious industry goals for Certification by Analysis. The objective of this position paper is to highlight gaps in the current technical and programmatic state of uncertainty quantification. Four main categories – Mindset & Awareness, Tools & Capabilities, Data and Benchmarks for V&V, and Applied Research & Established Processes – will be introduced. Each of these categories contains several shortcomings and impediments which, if overcome, will enable more widespread possibilities for Certification by Analysis in the 2040-2050 timeframe.


    Access

    Access via TIB

    Check availability in my library


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Development Strategies for Uncertainty Quantification to Enable Aircraft Certification by Analysis


    Contributors:

    Conference:

    AIAA SciTech Forum ; 2024 ; Orlando, FL, US


    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    No indication


    Language :

    English




    Development Strategies for Uncertainty Quantification to Enable Aircraft Certification by Analysis

    Schaefer, John A. / Bekemeyer, Philipp / Denham, Casey L. et al. | AIAA | 2024



    Uncertainty Quantification and Certification Prediction of Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft Configurations

    West, Thomas K., IV / Reuter, Bryan W. / Walker, Eric L. et al. | NTRS | 2014


    Uncertainty Quantification and Certification Prediction of Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft Configurations

    West, Thomas K. / Reuter, Bryan W. / Walker, Eric L. et al. | AIAA | 2017