Reliability is an important engineering requirement for consistently delivering acceptable product performance through time. As time progresses, the product may fail due to time-dependent operating conditions and material properties, component degradation, etc. The reliability degradation with time may increase the lifecycle cost due to potential warranty costs, repairs and loss of market share. Reliability is the probability that the system will perform its intended function successfully for a specified time interval. In this work, we consider the first-passage reliability which accounts for the first time failure of non-repairable systems. Methods are available in the literature, which provide an upper bound to the true reliability which may overestimate the true value considerably. Monte-Carlo simulations are accurate but computationally expensive. A computationally efficient importance sampling technique is presented to calculate the cumulative probability of failure for random dynamic systems excited by a stationary input random process. Time series modeling is used to characterize the input random process from only one sample function of the random process. Examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed importance sampling method over the traditional Monte Carlo simulation.


    Access

    Check access

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Time-Dependent Reliability of Random Dynamic Systems Using Time-Series Modeling and Importance Sampling


    Additional title:

    Sae Int. J. Mater. Manuf
    Sae International Journal of Materials and Manufacturing


    Contributors:

    Conference:

    SAE 2011 World Congress & Exhibition ; 2011



    Publication date :

    2011-04-12


    Size :

    18 pages




    Type of media :

    Conference paper


    Type of material :

    Print


    Language :

    English




    Time-dependent reliability of random dynamic systems using time-series modeling and importance sampling

    Singh,A. / Mourelatos,Z. / Nikolaidis,E. et al. | Automotive engineering | 2011


    2011-01-0728 Time-Dependent Reliability of Random Dynamic Systems Using Time-Series Modeling and Importance Sampling

    Singh, A. / Mourelatos, Z. / Nikolaidis, E. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2011


    Time-dependent reliability estimation for dynamic systems using a random process approach

    Singh,A. / Mourelatos,Z.P. / Oakland Univ.,US | Automotive engineering | 2010


    Time-Dependent Reliability Estimation for Dynamic Systems Using a Random Process Approach

    Singh, Amandeep / Mourelatos, Zissimos P. | SAE Technical Papers | 2010


    2010-01-0644 Time-Dependent Reliability Estimation for Dynamic Systems Using a Random Process Approach

    Singh, A. / Mourelatos, Z.P. / Society of Automotive Engineers | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2010