Ship route prediction can guarantee maritime rights and interests, ocean trade, and territorial security. This paper proposes a ship route corridor prediction method based on benefit model. Monte Carlo method is used to estimate the route cost of each feasible route. Introducing current event information through establishing event development model, the expected revenue of ship to different destinations can be obtained. Combining the expected revenue function and estimated results of route cost, the benefits of each feasible route can be calculated. The route corridor can be obtained by filtering feasible routes based on the benefits. The simulation results show that the ship’s location area can be predicted through the route corridor supplemented by the route point time information of the feasible route. After the ship enters a identify area of the route corridor, the ship’s destination can be predicted under the assumption of maximum returns. This method solves the problem of forecasting ship routes and destinations. It has less reliance on historical data than traditional algorithms such as data mining, and it extends the prediction time span compared to Markov models and other methods.
Ship Route Corridor Prediction Based on Benefit Model
Lect. Notes Electrical Eng.
2021-10-30
11 pages
Article/Chapter (Book)
Electronic Resource
English
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