This study explores the impact of long-term traffic violations on accident risk, a frequently overlooked aspect in existing research. Analyzing violation data from Guilin, China, over a decade (2010-2020), including accident records from 2016-2020, the study categorizes drivers into three groups based on their cumulative violations. Given the challenges posed by high-dimensional data and the need for interpretability, the study employs a combination of CatBoost and SHAP models to assess factors influencing accident severity across these driver groups. Results indicate that for drivers without cumulative violations, road type, vehicle type, household registration, and age significantly influence accident risk. Among those with 1–18 cumulative violations, road type, cumulative penalty points, vehicle type, and cumulative fines emerge as significant factors. Drivers with more than 19 cumulative violations are affected by road type, vehicle type, driving experience, and terrain. Notably, penalty points are more effective than fines in reducing the risk of serious accidents, and fines prove significant only for those with fewer than 19 cumulative violations over a decade. In summary, the cumulative violation count effectively distinguishes driver groups, highlighting marked variations in accident risk factors. This research offers valuable insights for devising region-specific measures to enhance road safety.


    Access

    Download


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Cumulative effect of driver’s historical violations on traffic accidents: New evidences from China


    Additional title:

    T. Wang et al.
    Journal of Transportation Safety & Security


    Contributors:
    Wang, Tao (author) / Liu, Hao (author) / Yan, Xingchen (author) / Ye, Xiaofei (author) / Ma, Changxi (author)

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2024-12-01


    Size :

    33 pages




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English





    Traffic accidents and violations

    Engineering Index Backfile | 1956



    The Age Trends for Traffic Violations and Accidents

    Makishita, H. / Ichikawa, K. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1997


    The age trends for traffic violations and accidents

    Makishita,H. / Ichikawa,K. / National Res.Inst.of Police Science,JP | Automotive engineering | 1997