Models that predict hurricane evacuation demand can play a crucial role in developing and evaluating alternative evacuation policies and plans. However, to evaluate alternative policies effectively, evacuation demand models should be sensitive to time varying characteristics of a storm and the contextual conditions surrounding an evacuee. The time-dependent sequential logit is one such model, but it makes use of restrictive assumptions about the dynamic choices made by evacuees. A new model, a time-dependent nested logit model, relaxes those assumptions. It was formulated and derived in this study, and its performance was then compared with that of the time-dependent sequential logit model by applying both models to data from Hurricane Gustav. The results indicated that the time-dependent nested logit model has better predictive capability than the time-dependent sequential logit model.


    Access

    Download

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Comparison of Time-Dependent Sequential Logit and Nested Logit for Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Demand


    Additional title:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2012-01-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Hurricane Evacuation

    Fu, Haoqiang / Wilmot, Chester G. | Transportation Research Record | 2004



    Predictive Quality of a Time-Dependent Sequential Logit Evacuation Demand Model

    Gudishala, Ravindra / Wilmot, Chester | Transportation Research Record | 2013