The queue percentile formulation adopted in the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) is empirically based. It contains an overly simplified functional form and parameters such that the accuracy of the back-of-queue percentile estimates is compromised. In view of this, the author applies the Delta method to derive the uncertainty formulation of back-of-queue through the first-order Taylor expansion approximation, assuming that the source of uncertainty comes from arrival flow, saturation flow and, for actuated controller, green time variability from vehicle actuation. As multiplication of the independent, positive random variables results in a lognormal distributed outcome, the back-of-queue percentile is quantified as a lognormal predictive interval function. The simulation study shows that the proposed back-of-queue predictive interval is much more accurate than the HCM counterpart in most of the cases evaluated based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. The proposed formulations can be used to quantify the back-of-queue predictive interval for both pre-timed and actuated control, whereas HCM is indifferent to the type of control. As expected, the variability of back-of-queue from the actuated control is less than the pre-timed control in unsaturated condition. The predictive interval profiles become identical when the degree of saturation approaches to unity and maxes out the green time.


    Access

    Download

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Modeling Back-of-Queue Uncertainty at Signalized Intersections


    Additional title:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2020-02-02




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English



    Acceleration of Queue Leaders at Signalized intersections

    Dey, P.P. / Biswas, P. | British Library Online Contents | 2011


    Real-Time Queue Length Estimation at Signalized Intersections

    Yao, Ronghan / Zhang, Xiaotong / Xu, Hongfeng | ASCE | 2016



    Comparison of Queue-Length Models at Signalized Intersections

    Viloria, Fadhely | Online Contents | 2000


    Comparison of Queue-Length Models at Signalized Intersections

    Viloria, Fadhely / Courage, Kenneth / Avery, Donald | Transportation Research Record | 2000