Two dynamic travel demand models for hurricane evacuation based on survival analysis are presented: a Cox proportional hazards model and a piecewise exponential model. These models were used to estimate the probability of a household's evacuating within discrete time intervals before hurricane landfall as a function of the household's socioeconomic characteristics, the characteristics of the hurricane, and management practice in terms of the issuance of an evacuation order. Data from southeast Louisiana collected following Hurricane Andrew were applied. Both models reproduced the evacuation behavior satisfactorily, although the piecewise exponential model was slightly more accurate. Both appear capable of modeling dynamic hurricane evacuation travel demand. However, the Cox model cannot accommodate certain time-dependent variables because of its structure. The piecewise exponential model does not have such a limitation. The piecewise exponential model also has the advantage of estimating the baseline hazards endogenously.


    Access

    Download

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Survival Analysis–Based Dynamic Travel Demand Models for Hurricane Evacuation


    Additional title:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2006-01-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    Survival Analysis-Based Dynamic Travel Demand Models for Hurricane Evacuation

    Fu, H. / Wilmot, C. G. / National Research Council (U.S.) | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2006


    Survival Analysis-Based Dynamic Travel Demand Models for Hurricane Evacuation

    Fu, Haoqiang / Wilmot, Chester | Transportation Research Record | 2006



    Sequential Logit Dynamic Travel Demand Model for Hurricane Evacuation

    Fu, Haoqiang / Wilmot, Chester G. | Transportation Research Record | 2004