Forecasting air travel in uncertain times is a challenging task. The effects of uncertainties accompanied with usual errors emanating from estimation of demand prevent deterministic forecasts from representing an uncertain future. The framework that is presented takes into account uncertainty for which the nature and sources are unknown. A parametric distribution fitting the past growth rates captures the probabilities associated with the outcomes representing the future uncertainty at the airports. This process combined with Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate probabilistic forecasts at the top 50 commercial airports in the United States. The methodology is illustrated by using Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Georgia. Probabilistic forecasts provide an important tool for investment and personnel planning in uncertain times.


    Access

    Download

    Check availability in my library

    Order at Subito €


    Export, share and cite



    Title :

    Probabilistic Forecasts for Aviation Traffic at FAA's Commercial Terminals


    Subtitle :

    Suggested Methodology and Example


    Additional title:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Contributors:


    Publication date :

    2007-01-01




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    English




    Improving Aviation Forecasts for FAA's En Route Facilities

    Bhadra, Dipasis | Online Contents | 2006


    The FAA's Aviation Weather System Plan

    McCullough, C. P. / Gordon, L. M. / Kavoussi, S. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1995


    The FAA's Aviation Weather Development Program Research Activities: An Overview

    Klasinski, K. / Leonard, K. / Van Sickle, K. L. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1995