The invention discloses an expressway interleaving area traffic conflict risk stability prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: respectively acquiring corresponding traffic flow data based on traffic conflict samples and non-traffic conflict samples in an interleaving area; converting the traffic flow data of the traffic conflicts and the traffic flow data of the non-traffic conflict samples into binary variables by using a binning algorithm; and taking the traffic flow binary variable as an explanatory variable, constructing a causal regularization logistic regression model, predicting whether a traffic conflict occurs or not, and identifying key traffic flow features influencing the risk of the traffic conflict. According to the method, a causal regularization logistic regression model is constructed, stable causal association between traffic conflict risks and traffic flow characteristics is mined, the traffic conflict risks are predicted, and a certain theoretical basis is provided for improving traffic flow operation of the expressway interleaving area in real time and reducing traffic conflicts.

    本发明公开了一种快速道路交织区交通冲突风险稳定预测方法,包括:基于交织区内交通冲突样本和非交通冲突样本分别获取相应的交通流数据;将交通冲突的交通流数据与非交通冲突样本的交通流数据利用分箱算法转化为二元变量;以交通流二元变量作为解释变量,构建因果正则化逻辑回归模型,预测是否发生交通冲突以及识别出影响交通冲突风险的关键交通流特征。该方法通过构建因果正则化逻辑回归模型,挖掘交通冲突风险与交通流特征间的稳定因果关联,预测交通冲突风险,为实时改善快速道路交织区交通流运行,减少交通冲突的发生提供一定的理论依据。


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    Title :

    Method for predicting traffic conflict risk stability of expressway interleaving area


    Additional title:

    一种快速道路交织区交通冲突风险稳定预测方法


    Contributors:
    ZHAO JINGYA (author) / ZHAO XIA (author) / ZHANG WENXIN (author)

    Publication date :

    2025-05-16


    Type of media :

    Patent


    Type of material :

    Electronic Resource


    Language :

    Chinese


    Classification :

    IPC:    G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS



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