It is desirable to predict product reliability accurately in the early design stage, but the lack of information usually leads to the use of independent component failure assumption. This assumption makes the system reliability prediction much easier, but may produce large errors since component failures are usually dependent after the components are put into use within a mechanical system. The bound of the system reliability can be estimated, but is usually wide. This wide reliability bound makes it difficult to make decisions in evaluating and selecting design concepts, during the early design stage. This work demonstrates the feasibility of considering dependent component failures during the early design stage with a new methodology that makes the system reliability bound much narrower. The following situation is addressed: the reliability of each component and the distribution of its load are known, but the dependence between component failures is unknown. With a physics-based approach, an optimization model is established so that a narrow bound of the system reliability can be generated. Two examples demonstrate that it is possible to produce a narrower system reliability bound than the traditional reliability bound, thereby better assisting decision making during the early design stage.


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    Title :

    System Reliability Analysis with Dependent Component Failures during Early Design Stage - A Feasibility Study


    Contributors:

    Published in:

    Publication date :

    2016




    Type of media :

    Article (Journal)


    Type of material :

    Print


    Language :

    English



    Classification :

    BKL:    50.15 Konstruktionslehre / 52.15 Maschinenelemente, Maschinenbaugruppen / 52.20 Antriebstechnik, Getriebelehre
    Local classification TIB:    770/5315/5330




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