This article provides a new method for computing the probability of collision between two spherical space objects involved in a short-term encounter under Gaussian-distributed uncertainty. In this model of conjunction, classical assumptions reduce the probability of collision to the integral of a two-dimensional Gaussian probability density function over a disk. The computational method presented here is based on an analytic expression for the integral, derived by use of Laplace transform and D-finite functions properties. The formula has the form of a product between an exponential term and a convergent power series with positive coefficients. Analytic bounds on the truncation error are also derived and are used to obtain a very accurate algorithm. Another contribution is the derivation of analytic bounds on the probability of collision itself, allowing for a very fast and, in most cases, very precise evaluation of the risk. The only other analytical method of the literature (based on an approximation) is shown to be a special case of the new formula. A numerical study illustrates the efficiency of the proposed algorithms on a broad variety of examples and favorably compares the approach to the other methods of the literature.


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    Titel :

    Fast and Accurate Computation of Orbital Collision Probability for Short-Term Encounters


    Beteiligte:
    Serra, Romain (Autor:in) / Arzelier, Denis (Autor:in) / Joldes, Mioara (Autor:in) / Lasserre, Jean-Bernard (Autor:in) / Rondepierre, Aude (Autor:in) / Salvy, Bruno (Autor:in)

    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    01.05.2016




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Konferenz) , Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch




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