Toll road concessions are instruments used by governments to transfer risks and finance infrastructure projects needed to sustain economic development. However, these projects are plagued by heavy uncertainties, in part because their free cash flows are affected by unreliable traffic demand forecasts. Accordingly, this study analyses the literature on the field of project evaluation in concessions to extract common practices when forecasting traffic demand. From this information, this research assesses the most common traffic forecasting methods and proposes a new approach that might address flaws in the estimation methods existing in the literature. Thus, the study compares Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), Mean Reversion (MR), and Fourier series models (FSM). The comparison evaluates the best-fit patterns in traffic demand forecasts given the long-horizon feature of toll road concessions and uncertainty. The models use the historical traffic demand of a real concession initiative within Colombia’s Fourth Generation Roads Concession Program (4G). The results indicate that the Fourier series outperform GBM and MR when forecasting seasonal traffic. Because this finding was obtained from a real toll road with marked seasonality, the study opens a path for further research in traffic forecasting for seasonal behavior.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Fourier Series for Seasonal Traffic Forecasting: An Application to a Real Toll Road Concession in Colombia


    Beteiligte:

    Kongress:

    Construction Research Congress 2024 ; 2024 ; Des Moines, Iowa


    Erschienen in:

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    18.03.2024




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Konferenz)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch



    Construction Performance Analysis in the Project Delivery of Toll Road Concession

    Roi Milyardi / Reini D. Wirahadikusumah / Muhamad Abduh et al. | DOAJ | 2020

    Freier Zugriff

    Developing model of toll road traffic forecasting during ramp-up period

    Indra Dharmawan Weka / Sjafruddin Ade / Bona Frazila Russ et al. | DOAJ | 2019

    Freier Zugriff

    Optimal safety incentives in road concession contracts

    Pablo Perez de Villar / Jose Manuel Vassallo | DOAJ | 2014

    Freier Zugriff

    Adaptive Seasonal Time Series Models for Forecasting Short-Term Traffic Flow

    Shekhar, Shashank / Williams, Billy M. | Transportation Research Record | 2007