Traffic and revenue (T&R) forecasts are based on travel demand models and inputs with associated uncertainties and imperfections. Forecasters must guard against overstating a proposed project’s T&R potential while avoiding being too conservative. Performing sophisticated risk assessment and sensitivity tests on key input parameters is a prudent solution to this forecasting dichotomy, thus reducing the risk in planning, designing, and financing the toll facilities. This paper presents a risk analysis process and shows two case studies, one for a traditional toll road (where all of the facility’s mainlanes are tolled) and one for a managed lane facility (where some of the mainlanes are tolled and some of the mainlanes, called general purpose lanes, are non-tolled), where the process is applied. In addition, impacts of select extreme events are estimated and presented.
Evaluation of Traffic and Revenue Risks of Toll Roads and Managed Lane Facilities
Second International Conference on Public-Private Partnerships ; 2015 ; Austin, Texas
Advances in Public-Private Partnerships ; 460-472
11.07.2017
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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