Under the influence of technological and societal factors, passenger transport in Germany is facing a comprehensive transformation towards an increasingly multimodal and greenhouse gas neutral system. The aim of this work is to describe the long-term changes in individual mobility behavior in the context of these transformation processes and in the time horizon up to the year 2050 in Germany. For this purpose, the concept of mobility culture according to Stephenson et al. [1] is introduced to capture the factors influencing individual mobility behavior in the three dimensions of the material culture, cognitive norms and habitualized practices. As a central tool, an agent- and activity-based transport demand model called MO|DE is developed to simulate the short- and long-term mobility behavior of individuals. Finally, MO|DE is used to analyze future mobility behavior in three different areas of observation in the year 2050 in Germany. First, the market ramp-up of electric mobility in the private passenger car sector in Germany is considered. Assuming a market exit of vehicles with combustion engines from 2035 onwards, as a result of the anticipated political regulations at European [2], [3] and national level [4], a fleet share of 86% to 88% of fully electrified passenger cars is simulated for the year 2050. The ratio of battery electric to fuel cell electric vehicles is 3:1 in the scenario with low availability of fuel cell vehicles, or 1:1 assuming broad technology availability in all passenger car segments. Subsequently, the future mobility behavior of people in urban areas is analyzed with a special focus on autonomous and shared mobility. In the scenarios without private cars, transport demand is met 59% to 64% by public transport, 27% by walking and cycling, and 9% to 14% by autonomous car- and ridesharing services. The use of autonomous and shared vehicle fleets can also reduce the number of cars needed to serve transport demand by up to 98% compared to the 2019 status quo. Finally, the mobility behavior of persons is simulated on a national level in order to derive an aggregated transport and end energy demand for Germany. In the scenarios of the year 2050, the national transport demand in passenger kilometers decreases by 12% to 24% compared to the status quo of the year 2019, mainly due to demographic factors. At the same time, the modal split proves to be stable. The end energy demand in passenger transport decreases by 73% to 78% in the future scenarios of the year 2050, on the one hand due to a lower transport demand and on the other hand due to the higher efficiency of electrified powertrains. The combined share of electricity and hydrogen in end energy demand in 2050 is 79% to 82% with total end energy demand between 110 TWh to 135 TWh.


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    Titel :

    Modellgestützte Analyse zukünftigen Mobilitätsverhaltens


    Weitere Titelangaben:

    Model-based analysis of future mobility behavior


    Beteiligte:
    Reul, Julian Paul (Autor:in) / Stolten, Detlef (Akademische:r Betreuer:in) / Böschen, Stefan Karl Josef (Akademische:r Betreuer:in)

    Erscheinungsdatum :

    01.01.2024


    Format / Umfang :

    1 Online-Ressource : Illustrationen pages


    Anmerkungen:

    Dissertation, RWTH Aachen University, 2024; Jülich : Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Zentralbibliothek, Verlag, Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich. Reihe Energie & Umwelt/energy & environment 638, 1 Online-Ressource : Illustrationen (2024). doi:10.18154/RWTH-2024-08238 = Dissertation, RWTH Aachen University, 2024



    Medientyp :

    Sonstige


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Deutsch