The invention discloses a road section traffic speed short-term prediction method in view of the long-term equilibrium relationship. According to the method, firstly, a vector auto-regression model is established for a first-order difference stationary time series of a target section traffic speed and an adjacent upstream section traffic speed. Secondly, the co-integration test is conducted on an original non-stationary time series of the target section traffic speed and the adjacent upstream section traffic speed and then a co-integration equation is established. Finally, in combination with the vector auto-regression model and the co-integration equation, a vector error correct model is established for the target section traffic speed and the adjacent upstream section traffic speed. In this way, the short-term prediction on the target section traffic speed is realized. According to the technical scheme of the invention, during the short-term prediction process of the section traffic speed, both the influence of the short-term fluctuation relation and the influence of the long-term equilibrium relationship between the time series of upstream and downstream section traffic speeds on the prediction process are taken into account at the same time. Therefore, the short-term prediction accuracy and the short-term prediction reliability for section traffic speeds are improved.
Road section traffic speed short-term prediction method in view of long-term equilibrium relationship
02.12.2015
Patent
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
IPC: | G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS |
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