The invention discloses a traffic flow prediction method in a channel accident based on a chaos theory, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, taking a center line of a channel as a navigation lane separation line, forming sub-channels in two traffic flow directions, and separating each sub-channel to form a plurality of virtual channels; collecting AIS data of ships in a navigation channel; s2, collecting a real-time road occupation area, a real-time road occupation center and a real-time road occupation rate of the channel accident, and obtaining a deduced road occupation area, a deduced road occupation center and a deduced road occupation rate based on the hydrometeorological data and the channel accident model; s3, acquiring AIS data of the lane insertion rate of the ships on the virtual navigation channel and the lane cutting rate of the ships inside and outside the navigation channel in real time; and S4, calculating a time sequence corresponding to the AIS data of the ship lane insertion rate and the lane cutting rate, judging the chaos of the time sequence, and predicting the traffic flow change trend through the fuzzy prediction model. The prediction method truly reflects the actual traffic flow condition of ship movement in the channel accident, and predicts the future trend of the traffic flow more comprehensively and visually.
本发明公开了一种基于混沌理论的航道事故中交通流预测方法,包括以下步骤:S1、以航道的中心线作为通航分道分隔线,形成两个交通流方向的子航道,每个子航道分隔形成若干虚拟航道;采集航道内船舶的AIS数据;S2、采集航道事故的实时占道区域、实时占道中心和实时占道率,基于水文气象数据和航道事故模型,得到推演占道区域、推演占道中心和推演占道率;S3、实时采集航道上船舶在虚拟航道上的插道率,以及航道内外船舶的切道率的AIS数据;S4、计算船舶插道率和切道率的AIS数据对应时间序列,并判别时间序列的混沌性,通过模糊预测模型预测交通流变化趋势。该预测方法真实反应航道事故中船舶运动的实际交通流情况,更全面直观的预测交通流未来趋势。
Traffic flow prediction method in channel accident based on chaos theory
一种基于混沌理论的航道事故中交通流预测方法
30.12.2022
Patent
Elektronische Ressource
Chinesisch
IPC: | G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen / G06Q Datenverarbeitungssysteme oder -verfahren, besonders angepasst an verwaltungstechnische, geschäftliche, finanzielle oder betriebswirtschaftliche Zwecke, sowie an geschäftsbezogene Überwachungs- oder Voraussagezwecke , DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES / G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS |
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