The invention belongs to the technical field of novel electric power system electric vehicle loads, and particularly relates to an electric vehicle load prediction method considering traffic road conditions. The method comprises the following steps: analyzing travel behavior characteristics of an electric vehicle user and modeling; performing clustering analysis and modeling on the user travel feature model; predicting the future electric vehicle ownership to obtain future electric vehicle ownership growth condition prediction data; and performing large-scale electric vehicle charging load prediction on the obtained future electric vehicle ownership increase condition prediction data to obtain a future electric vehicle load prediction result considering the traffic road condition. According to the method, the traffic road conditions encountered when the electric vehicle user travels are clustered, and the future electric vehicle ownership is predicted by using the artificial intelligence algorithm, so that the result of electric vehicle load prediction performed by using the Monte Carlo method subsequently is more accurate than the traditional electric vehicle charging load prediction result; the value is closer to a real value.
本发明属于新型电力系统电动汽车负荷技术领域,尤其涉及一种考虑交通道路状况的电动汽车负荷预测方法。本发明包括:对电动汽车用户出行行为特征进行分析并建模;对用户出行特征模型进行聚类分析并建模;对未来电动汽车保有量进行预测,得到未来电动汽车保有量增长情况预测数据;对得到的未来电动汽车保有量增长情况预测数据,进行规模化电动汽车充电负荷预测,得到未来的考虑交通道路状况的电动汽车负荷预测结果。本发明通过对电动汽车用户出行时遭遇的交通道路状况进行聚类以及利用人工智能算法对未来的电动汽车保有量进行预测,使得后续用蒙特卡洛法进行电动汽车负荷预测的结果相比于传统电动汽车充电负荷预测结果更加准确,更贴近真实值。
Electric vehicle load prediction method considering traffic road conditions
一种考虑交通道路状况的电动汽车负荷预测方法
06.05.2025
Patent
Elektronische Ressource
Chinesisch
IPC: | G06N COMPUTER SYSTEMS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS , Rechnersysteme, basierend auf spezifischen Rechenmodellen / H02J CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER , Schaltungsanordnungen oder Systeme für die Abgabe oder Verteilung elektrischer Leistung / G08G Anlagen zur Steuerung, Regelung oder Überwachung des Verkehrs , TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS / G06F ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING , Elektrische digitale Datenverarbeitung |
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