Control Charts using Parametric Empirical Bayes (PEB) based on a Robust Cauchy prior and Poisson likelihood have proven useful for automatically detecting spikes in safety-related flight operations event rates. As part of the monitoring work of the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) program, a joint government-aviation industry program, many hundreds of time series are being monitored. Automated detection methods are a necessity, and control charts a logical choice of tool, but basic control charts are problematic. For example, proportions charts produce excessive alerts. The robust Cauchy-Poisson PEB approach using numerical optimization is efficiently producing manageable numbers of relevant alerts while remaining relatively simple to administer and interpret.
Robust Parametric Empirical Bayes based anomaly detection for flight safety events
01.04.2013
493737 byte
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Robust Parametric Empirical Bayes based anomaly detection for flight safety events
IEEE | 2013
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