This paper attempts to quantify the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability using a newly proposed multi-state travel time reliability model. Given that the multi-state travel time reliability model provides significantly better fits when compared to using a single-mode density function, it is possible to quantify the incident impacts more accurately. In order to obtain travel times, the study simulates weekday traffic on a section of I-66 over 17 days, once with incidents and once without them, using the INTEGRATION microscopic traffic simulation software. The simulated travel time data sets are then used to fit a three-state travel time reliability model (three normal distributions) to calibrate the parameters of the density function using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The study demonstrates that incidents do not introduce an additional component distribution when congestion has already onset; instead they increase the mean travel time and variability in travel times for the congested conditions. For instance, the 90th percentile travel time of the second component distribution increases by up to 93 percent. Additionally, the study addresses technical issues related to the calibration and interpretation of the model from a practical standpoint.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Multi-state travel time reliability model: Impact of incidents on travel time reliability


    Beteiligte:
    Sangjun Park, (Autor:in) / Rakha, H. (Autor:in) / Feng Guo, (Autor:in)


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    01.10.2011


    Format / Umfang :

    552093 byte





    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Konferenz)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch





    Impact of Traffic Incidents on Reliability of Freeway Travel Times

    Wright, Benjamin / Zou, Yajie / Wang, Yinhai | Transportation Research Record | 2015


    Transit Travel Time Reliability

    Hendren, Patricia / Antos, Justin / Carney, Yvonne et al. | Transportation Research Record | 2019


    Travel Time Reliability Modeling

    H. Rakha / S. Park / F. Guo | NTIS | 2011