A mathematical model was generated to predict toxic chemicals released from an explosion involving a Titan II, Delta II, or Titan IV launch vehicle. The model was based on a variety of scientific and engineering input: the chemical description of interacting rocket propellants, data from previous accidents involving these or similar launch systems, an analysis of vehicle failure modes and propellant mixing characteristics, and thermochemical properties of reacting rocket propellants and their combustion products. Outputs of the model include the chemical composition and average molecular weight of the fireball cloud, the adiabatic flame temperature, the fireball size, and the total heat release. Input variables to the model include the time and altitude of abort, the mixing ratio for liquid propellants, amounts of unreacted liquid rocket propellants thermally decomposed, and the amount of air entrained into the fireball cloud.


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