For a Corps of Engineers reconnaissance study, we developed a numerical model to estimate the time needed for various ship types to transit the Russian Northern Sea Route. We simulated liquid bulk, dry bulk, and container ship transits during the months of April, June, August, and October. In the model, probability distributions for various ice, ocean and atmospheric inputs are exercised by a Monte Carlo algorithm to generate combinations of conditions that affect ship speed. The speed, dependent on the established environment during each time and distance segment, is read from empirically derived lookup tables. Daily ship rates and Russian passage fees were applied to calculate the relative total costs for moving the various cargoes over the route. The model's development, limiting assumptions, simulation logic, data inputs, and resulting output are discussed.


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    The Potential for Transit Operations on the Northern Sea Route

    Ramsland, T. R. / Fridtjof Nansen Institute / Ship & Ocean Foundation et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2000


    TRANSIT ROUTE PROPOSAL DEVICE AND TRANSIT ROUTE PROPOSAL METHOD

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    Comparison and selection of feeder transit between flex-route transit and fixed-route transit

    Sun, Chunyang / Shao, Zike / Shi, Yuxiang et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2021


    Monte Carlo Simulation to Estimate Northern Sea Route Transit Time and Cost

    Mulherin, N. D. / Smith, O. P. / Eppler, D. T. et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1995