Since Poland’s accession to the EU in 2004, economic growth has led to significant expansion of the built environment in Polish cities. This has been reflected in the rise of (sub)urban sprawl developments, accompanied by traffic congestion and air pollution challenges . Our study models the consequences of recent (sub)urban development in Polish cities in terms of traffic congestion and pollution externalities. To this end, we formulate analytical approach capturing interactions between land-use changes, transport performance and emissions of both air pollutants and CO2 (the ‘LUTEm’ framework). We apply this framework to case studies of large and middle-sized cities (Warsaw, Rzeszow) to simulate the impacts of dynamic (sub)urbanisation between 2006 and 2023 upon traffic network loads, system performance and vehicular emissions.
Our analyses underline the significant growths (20 – 50%) in total built-up area and traffic loads. While road network investments (e.g. ring roads) provided traffic relief in certain areas, these were largely mitigated by induced (rebound) traffic effects. Increasing traffic volumes and emissions are a widely observable consequence, particularly in suburban areas. Increasing travel distances and car dependency have resulted in the rise of peak-hour traffic emissions by 20 – 50% between the 2006 and 2023 scenarios. Our investigation outcomes underscore the amplification of recent (sub)urban sprawl consequences for transport and environment in Poland. Reversing the uncontrolled sprawl is therefore a crucial policy direction for Polish cities to achieve the objectives of sustainable development and climate mitigation.
Modelling the Transport Externalities of Urban Sprawl Development in Polish Cities Between 2006 and 2023
Lecture Notes in Intelligent Transportation and Infrastructure
Conference on Sustainable Urban Mobility ; 2024 ; Kalivia Filaktis, Greece September 04, 2024 - September 06, 2024
11.03.2025
14 pages
Aufsatz/Kapitel (Buch)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
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