Accurate prediction of turning volumes at urban intersections is useful in Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS). Existing studies on traffic flow prediction have mostly focused on midblock sections and only limited studies were undertaken on urban intersections. In the present study, models based on Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) were developed to predict the direction-wise turning volumes at an unsignalized three-leg intersection. Preceding three days of direction-wise turning volumes were used in the model to predict the following day’s turning volumes. Short term prediction of turning volumes was also experimented using both historic (preceding three days data) and real time data on the day of prediction. The results were promising with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of less than 10 in majority of the cases. The prediction scheme requires only limited data as input and open source software package R for estimation of model parameters and prediction.


    Zugriff

    Zugriff prüfen

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Short-term prediction of intersection turning volume using seasonal ARIMA model


    Beteiligte:

    Erschienen in:

    Transportation Letters ; 12 , 7 ; 483-490


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    08.08.2020


    Format / Umfang :

    8 pages




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Unbekannt




    Short-term traffic flow prediction using seasonal ARIMA model with limited input data

    Kumar, S. Vasantha / Vanajakshi, Lelitha | Springer Verlag | 2015

    Freier Zugriff

    Short-term Forecast Model of Vehicles Volume Based on ARIMA Seasonal Model and Holt-Winters

    Wang Zhi-Hui / Lu Chen-Yang / Pu Bin et al. | DOAJ | 2017

    Freier Zugriff

    Forecasting Short-term Container Vessel Traffic Volume Using Hybrid ARIMA-NN Model

    Negar Sadeghi Gargari / Hassan Akbari / Roozbeh Panahi | DOAJ | 2019

    Freier Zugriff

    Highway Traffic Volume Forecasting Based on Seasonal ARIMA Model

    Tong, Mingrong / Xue, Hengxin | ASCE | 2008


    Forecast of Short-Term Passenger Flow of Urban Railway Stations Based on Seasonal ARIMA Model

    Guang, Zhirui / Yang, Jun / Li, Jian | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2018