This work contributes to study the application of extreme value theory (EVT) in road safety analysis, estimating the risk of being involved in an entering–circulating collision in single-lane roundabouts. Detailed trajectory data of the vehicles were derived from a driving simulator experiment, and the time-to-collision (TTC) was used as a surrogate measure of safety. Three EVT approaches were applied, tested and compared: (1) the Generalized Extreme Value distribution used in the block maxima (BM) approach, (2) the Generalized Pareto Distribution used in the peak-over-threshold approach (POT), with negated-TTC (nTTC), and (3) shifted-reciprocal-TTC (srTTC). Case-study results analysis showed that BM and POT with shifted-reciprocal-TTC confidence intervals included the number of observed crashes, while POT with negated-TTC did not include it. According to these findings, both BM and POT-with-shifted-reciprocal-TTC appear promising and deserve further attention in order to develop effective ready-to-practice crash prediction models, useful in intersection design and operational analysis.
Collision prediction in roundabouts: a comparative study of extreme value theory approaches
Transportmetrica A: Transport Science ; 15 , 2 ; 556-572
29.11.2019
17 pages
Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)
Elektronische Ressource
Englisch
Comparative Analysis of Compact Multilane Roundabouts and Turbo-Roundabouts
Online Contents | 2010
|Comparative Analysis of Compact Multilane Roundabouts and Turbo-Roundabouts
British Library Online Contents | 2010
|Freeway safety estimation using extreme value theory approaches: A comparative study
Online Contents | 2014
|Transportation Research Record | 2009
|TIBKAT | 2013