We have shown that technological hypes are potentially powerful phenomena that can trigger actors to engage in an innovation race instead of continuing their waiting game. Hypes can attract actors, funding and favourable regulations (and other institutions) that would otherwise not be attracted. Hypes are however also difficult, if not impossible, to control and expectations are likely to become overly optimistic and subsequent disappointment can cause a standstill once the hype is over. During the hype that surrounded hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, all major car manufacturers started developing hydrogen cars and national and international R&D programs were set up. All of this happened in an industry that has been dominated by a single design and in which radical (eco-) innovation stood little chance. Hydrogen and fuel cells were already seen as a promising option, but the hype made it the option that no firm could risk to miss out on. Perhaps not all of the actors that jumped on this bandwagon did so with full commitment, but a lot was learned and achieved during this period in the form of many working prototype cars and some small production series for test and demonstration fleets. The hype has passed and in its aftermath many hydrogen and fuel cell enactors are left without funding or other support for their work. Insofar as hydrogen is still being supported after the hype, it is in those contexts in which the hydrogen hype was solidified in longterm and stable institutions. Looking back, the hydrogen and fuel cell enactors have profited from the hype but the overall outcome is probably suboptimal given the limited opportunities that they have today. The same goes for the technology selectors, those that have supported the development of these technologies, as their investments have so far not resulted in commercially available or even viable cars. The innovation race that was spurred by the hype was also very much an expectations race. Those actors that make the highest bids, i.e. that promise the most in terms of technological and commercial achievements, are likely to profit most from the resources that become available during the hype. Next to that, actors in general, and the car manufacturers especially, are likely to make these high bids also as part of a communication strategy to highlight their innovativeness and willingness to develop clean cars. These incentives to voice high expectations, and to hype, make 'expectations management' in practice a difficult task for the enactors. We conclude therefore that expectation management is more likely to be achieved successfully by the selectors. They can do so for instance through the establishment of long-term programs that guarantee some level of continuation once the hype has passed. Next to that, technology selectors can choose for support schemes in which the supported enactors bear more responsibility and are therefore less likely to overpromise. The availability of a number of potential cars of the future, and increased pressure from governments, make it unlikely that the automotive industry will return to its waiting game. Car manufacturers have selected different portfolios of technological options and it is no longer just a competition between firms, but also a competition between the different cars of the future. Firms therefore need to move towards commercialization, not only because the public and policy makers want them to, but because they may lose their competitiveness if they wait too long instead of entering the innovation race at full throttle.
Technological hype and disappointment: Lessons from the hydrogen and fuel cell case
EVS, Electric Vehicle Symposium, 26 ; 1460-1471
2012
12 Seiten, 2 Tabellen, 47 Quellen
Aufsatz (Konferenz)
Englisch
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