The temporal transferability of mode choice and trip distribution models was studied by using the data based on traffic surveys in the Helsinki, Finland, metropolitan area in 1981 and 1988. The updating procedures examined were the Bayesian updating, combined transfer estimation, transfer scaling, and joint context estimation procedures. The results of model updating indicated that finding the correct method and sample size for each case is not an unambiguous task. The best method depends on the difference in model coefficients between the initial and the final stages as well as the quality of the data. According to the statistical tests, no differences could be discerned between the models at all. However, the sample enumeration test proved that the models’ ability to predict changes in behavior can vary greatly according to the method used. On the basis of this research the transfer scaling seems to be the method best suited for simple models. In particular, the method is quite useful if the transfer bias is large. The combined transfer estimation procedure performs best when there is a great number of observations and the transfer bias is small. With small sample sizes the Bayesian approach and the joint context estimation give the best results.


    Zugriff

    Download

    Verfügbarkeit in meiner Bibliothek prüfen

    Bestellung bei Subito €


    Exportieren, teilen und zitieren



    Titel :

    Empirical Studies of Transferability of Helsinki Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting Models


    Weitere Titelangaben:

    Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board


    Beteiligte:
    Karasmaa, Nina (Autor:in) / Pursula, Matti (Autor:in)


    Erscheinungsdatum :

    01.01.1997




    Medientyp :

    Aufsatz (Zeitschrift)


    Format :

    Elektronische Ressource


    Sprache :

    Englisch



    Empirical Studies of Transferability of Helsinki Metropolitan Area Travel Forecasting Models

    Karasmaa, N. / Pursula, M. / National Research Council; Transportation Research Board | British Library Conference Proceedings | 1997



    THE SPATIAL TRANSFERABILITY OF THE HELSINKI METROPOLITAN AREA MODE CHOICE MODELS

    Karasmaa, N. / World Conference on Transport Research Society | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2003


    Testing Spatial Transferability of Activity-Based Travel Forecasting Models

    Bowman, John L. / Bradley, Mark | Transportation Research Record | 2017


    Socioeconomic Characteristics, Land Use, and Travel Patterns of the Helsinki Metropolitan Area

    Pursula, M. / Teerioja, R. / American Society of Civil Engineers et al. | British Library Conference Proceedings | 2000